Daily snapshot
Today’s macro regime
Risk appetite, the Fed, the Treasury curve and the latest US inflation and jobs data in one place, from official sources. Updated each weekday.
Last updated: 14 October 2026, 05:58 UTC · Each panel shows the date of its own data. A panel that cannot be refreshed says “not available today” instead of showing old numbers.
KriekTrade risk gauge
Own indicator · reading of 14 October 2026
0 means fear and 100 means greed. The score blends the trend and volatility of the US stock market with the shape of the Treasury curve, then sits next to our Fed stance and cycle settings. We publish the result, not the market data inside it. How to tell risk-on from risk-off.
Fed policy rate
Source: Federal Reserve Board · EFFR: New York Fed
Next FOMC decisions
- 28 October 2026
- 9 December 2026
Decisions are announced on the second day of each meeting. Official FOMC calendar. How the Fed affects the forex market.
US Treasury yield curve
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates · as of 13 October 2026 · chart: our own
The curve by maturity
10-year minus 2-year, past 12 months
Above zero the curve slopes upward; below zero it is inverted.
Show the numbers
| Maturity | 13 Oct 2026 (%) | 15 Sep 2026 (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1M | 4.10 | 3.93 |
| 2M | 4.15 | 4.06 |
| 3M | 4.26 | 4.11 |
| 4M | 4.32 | 4.19 |
| 6M | 4.34 | 4.17 |
| 1Y | 4.48 | 4.39 |
| 2Y | 4.79 | 4.67 |
| 3Y | 4.90 | 4.76 |
| 5Y | 5.00 | 4.83 |
| 7Y | 5.11 | 4.91 |
| 10Y | 5.21 | 5.00 |
| 20Y | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| 30Y | 5.56 | 5.36 |
Shape rule: inverted if the 2s10s spread is below 0, flat if under 0.15, normal if under 1.00 percentage point, steep above that. Yield curve inversion explained.
US inflation and jobs
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Public Data API · accessed 14 October 2026 · year-on-year rates calculated by Kriek Institutional Research from BLS index levels
Actual versus prior month only: we do not show forecasts or consensus numbers. Prior values are as currently revised by BLS. BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov. CPI and the stock market.
18.6-year cycle
KriekTrade framework · gate setting
The cycle is a long-term land and credit framework we use as a backdrop, not a timing tool. The span is counted from the March 2009 low. Intervals between past downturns have varied from about 14 to 22 years. Read the 18.6-year cycle guide.
Sources and attribution
- Treasury yields: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates (US government work, public domain). Accessed 14 October 2026.
- Fed policy rate and FOMC dates: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, policy-rate changes and FOMC calendars (public domain, cited to the Board). Accessed 14 October 2026.
- Effective federal funds rate: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reference rates. Accessed 14 October 2026.
- Inflation and jobs: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Public Data API v1 and release schedules (public domain). BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov. Accessed 14 October 2026.
- Risk gauge, Fed stance setting and cycle phase: KriekTrade, our own indicators and judgement. Charts: our own, drawn from the figures above.
We are not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by the Federal Reserve, the Treasury or the BLS, and we do not use their logos. See the editorial policy.
Risk warning. Trading forex, CFDs, futures and crypto carries a high risk of losing money rapidly, and most retail accounts lose money. For education only; this is not advice. See the risk warning and the disclaimer.
Commentary by KriekTrade — educational only
What the numbers say today
On 14 October 2026 the KriekTrade risk gauge read 85 out of 100 (Risk On), pointing to a strong appetite for risk; 0 means fear and 100 means greed. The Federal Reserve’s target range for the policy rate is 3.75% to 4.00%, set by a 25 basis point increase effective 17 September 2026, and the effective rate printed 3.88%. KriekTrade’s stance setting reads dovish, a view of policy tone that can differ from the latest rate move. The next FOMC decision is due on 28 October 2026. The Treasury curve is normal (upward-sloping): the 2-year yield is 4.79% and the 10-year 5.21%, a 2s10s spread of +0.42 percentage points. The 2-year yield sits above the top of the Fed’s range, a gap that can reflect expectations of higher policy rates. In the latest official releases, US consumer price inflation was 3.4% year on year in August 2026 (unchanged from the prior month), core CPI was 2.4%, unemployment was 4.2% in September 2026, and nonfarm payrolls changed by +29k in September 2026. The 18.6-year cycle gate is set to late bull, a long-term backdrop, not a timing tool. This describes conditions; it is not a forecast.
Written automatically by a fixed template from the figures on this page only, with no outside news, and reviewed under our editorial policy. It is general information, the same for everyone, and not advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Trading forex, CFDs, futures and crypto carries a high risk of losing money rapidly, and most retail accounts lose money. For education only; this is not advice.